There is no established playbook for the collision of an energy transition with a commodity or energy supply shock
A COP27 sign on the road to Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 20 2022. Picture: SAYED SHEASHA/REUTERS
That said, let’s start with Europe. Energy markets were upended by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February and the subsequent disruptions to energy supply from the region. The concerted move away from Russian oil and gas represents the largest structural shift in global energy markets for decades. Europe has subsequently become the pre-eminent buyer of liquefied natural gas cargoes on the global spot market, dramatically driving up gas prices.
Of course, the irony here is that the events of 2022 have made renewable energy a more attractive proposition than ever. When compared to hydrocarbons, the levelised-cost-of-energy economics of solar and wind are significantly improved following the spike in oil, natural gas and coal prices.
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