Stopping Sudan's Descent into Full-Blown Civil War CrisisGroup: Sudan
Fighting in cities across Sudan has left hundreds dead and trapped untold numbers at home in severe danger. If not halted, the conflict could become a devastating civil war. Local and outside actors should demand a humanitarian ceasefire, especially around Eid al-Fitr, followed by talks.
Subsequently, Hemedti’s rift with Burhan grew wider still. In courting the civilian elites, Hemedti exploited the fact that many of them – much as they distrust the RSF – view the army as their historical enemy, a redoubt of Bashir sympathisers including Islamists who had staffed the former president’s bureaucracy. In December 2022, a framework agreement promising to restore civilian rule accentuated their rivalry.
But the final negotiations to form a new civilian government soon put the country back in the pressure cooker, as the parties missed the early April deadline. Talks about security-sector reform, one of five sticky issues put off for further discussion in December, dragged on, postponing the entire process. While most of the negotiations pitted the civilian elite against the military as a whole, the wrangling over security arrangements pitted Burhan and Hemedti against each other.
With neither Burhan nor Hemedti appearing ready to back down, the situation could get much worse. A prolonged conflict will be ruinous for Sudan. Some analysts expect the army to prevail in Khartoum, its home turf, but that outcome is by no means assured.
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