Analysis - The current crisis exposes the motives of the men with guns. It requires, paradoxically, the intervention of a distracted international community that has done little to support a democratic transition.
signed on 5 December 2022, which set a timetable for a final agreement by 1 April this year. A key point of contention was the timing for integration of the RSF into the national armed forces, bringing all forces under a single command. Hemedti, whose power rests largely on his control of the RSF, wanted to postpone this for ten years, while Burhan, who saw an independent RSF as a threat to his and the Army's own power, insisted on two.
Hemedti claims to be defending the civilian transition from the Army's attempts to subvert it, and that Burhan has failed to purge the SAF of Islamist officers put in place by Bashir who are still pursuing an Islamist agenda. But Hemedti's pose as the ally of the democratic opposition fails to carry conviction: he did not defend them in 2019 and has consistently shown no regard for anyone's interests but his own.
Largely it is a consequence of Bashir. Under his rule, national institutions were degraded and bent to serve the purpose of the regime alone, and he promoted conflict rather than compromise with excluded political forces in Darfur and the south. He firmly believed force was the only safe way of retaining power and supported the RSF as a way to keep both regional rebels and the SAF in check, playing one off against the other. Even from prison, his legacy continues to play out.
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