Eskom warned that load shedding would be 'prolonged' over the next six to 12 months as several major capital projects that 'carry significant risks' are implemented. In the most likely scenario, SA faces a minimum of Stage 3 load shedding almost daily.
SA is in for its most intense and protracted load shedding ever in the next six to 12 months, as Eskom battles equipment failures and is logistically unable to deliver and burn enough diesel to keep the lights on.
Eskom chief operating officer Jan Oberholzer and top executives briefed the media on Tuesday on the state of the system and the outlook for the summer months and into winter. From January to 11 November, SA has had 155 days of load shedding - Eskom's worst performance to date. The second scenario assumes an additional 1 500MW is out of working order. Under this scenario, SA can expect between 16 and 20 days of minimum Stage 2 load shedding a month during summer, reducing slightly after that. However, it would not be logistically able to deliver and burn enough diesel to limit load shedding to Stage 2 and it would frequently have to shed a greater load.
The third scenario assumes an additional 3 000MW of outages over and above the base case. This is the most likely scenario as it has been the experience for almost 43.7% of the time. This would require a minimum of Stage 3 load shedding nearly every day for the next 10 months. "If we continue to burn diesel the way we have for the past seven months, the cost would be astronomical. But we do not have the cash to spend. We would be able to pay if the municipalities were paying us," said Oberholzer. Elvira Wood
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