Younger Canadians stampede to the right
This challenges many long-held assumptions about what a winning Conservative coalition looks like. Since the Brian Mulroney era, it’s been widely assumed a Conservative win requires centrist swing voters to change allegiances. More recently, some advocated leaning farther right to regain PPC voters.
The reason so many political insiders and pundits are missing, if not outright misinterpreting, this trend and strategic opportunity comes down to age. Abacus data suggests Poilievre’s appeal changes radically by generation. In the 45-59 demo, to which many established politicos belong, preference for the Conservatives only grew by four points between January and July with the largest exodus coming from the PPC, which shed five points of support.
Commentators are very focused about whether Poilievre will shift tactics or tone following the leadership convention on September 10. But may not need to if he can turn out young voters and continue to eat Jagmeet Singh’s lunch, who has come around to millennial and Gen Z economic anger much too late and, even now, can’t seem to channel it without sounding like a bad parody of Poilievre.
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