Labour’s success in Scotland doesn’t guarantee victory in the general election

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Labour’s success in Scotland doesn’t guarantee victory in the general election
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At the same, the Conservatives, in power at Westminster, were also thoroughly rebuffed. The party’s share of the votetheir worst by-election performance in Scotland in 30 years. The result underlined the message of the polls that Scots Tories have ceded to Labour the role of principal opposition to the SNP.. Labour’s invitation to the voters of Rutherglen that they should show their dissatisfaction with their two governments appears to have been accepted.

But if many voters in Rutherglen were casting a protest vote, would they necessarily vote the same way when who is in office for the next five years is at stake? Certainly, by-elections often record much larger swings against the government than eventually transpire at the subsequent general election.Indeed, it is a fair bet that the swing from the SNP to Labour would not be on the scale that happened in Rutherglen. But this is to miss the point.

First, the result is consistent with the message of the polls that Labour are now posing the most significant challenge since 2015 to the SNP’s dominance of Scotland’s representation. At 11 per cent, the average swing from Labour to the SNP in the polls is little more than half that in Rutherglen.

John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University and senior research fellow, National Centre for Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe. He is also co-host of the Trendy podcast.John Curtice

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