The Labour party's significant lead in the polls and the accuracy of MRP polling suggest a transformation in British politics.
There is a strange sense in British politics right now - almost as if Labour has already won, the election has happened already– they’re now part of the drumbeat of British politics: 20 to 25 point deficits with Labour are entirely normalised. It’s too easy to become inured to the scale of political volatility we’ve seen in a single Parliament.
Only four years ago, the Tories were besting Labour by the same margin; theThis sense of transformation is heightened by the development of so-called “MRP” polling. Without getting too technical, MRP (Multi-level regression and post-stratification) is a sophisticated form of modelling which allows you to use national polling data and translate to small geographic areas – i.e. individual constituency contests. Over the past few election cycles, they have proven quite accurate. It was an MRP poll which first predicted, to much derision at the time, that Theresa May would lose her majorit
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