If Pres. Trump is down in the polls, why do so many Americans think he’ll win? FiveThirtyEight discusses:
But couldn’t Trump lose nationally by 6 points and still win? Or say the polls are a bit off and Biden is really leading by only about 4 points nationally, isn’t that about even odds if Trump’s Electoral College advantage holds?perry:It’s possible, but again, this is assuming he still has a notable edge in key states in the Electoral College.than he is nationally, for example. He is stronger among white working-class voters than among other blocs.
before the election have very frequently gotten it 180 degrees backward. And who has the Electoral College advantage bounces like a ping-pong ball between the parties from cycle to cycle.Also, while the national polls could be off by a couple of points again, it’s worth remembering that from cycle to cycle. So it’s also possible for that error to go in Biden’s direction too, in which case the race might not be that close.the release of James Comey’s letter
less than two weeks before the election may have moved the needle just enough for her to lose. And, remember, we’re still roughly six months out — so things can and probably will change in different ways. What if the economy continues to go sideways over the next few months? Voters may start to say, well, Trump is more likely to lose than not.I totally agree with that. But the tricky thing is that while campaigns are dynamic, views on Trump are very undynamic.
So that’s why I tend to think that events don’t really matter this cycle. My main question is really, “Are the swing state polls accurate this cycle?” And I don’t feel confident I know the answer to that question, so I am as confused as the voters are. So, like voters, I might be overstating Trump’s chances because I am overcorrecting based on what happened in 2016 — and I am probably overstating Trump’s chances based on perhaps also overcorrecting for what happened in 2016.
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