In the latest quarterly Reuters surveys of over 500 economists taken throughout January, economists raised their 2022 inflation forecasts for most of the 46 economies covered.
This represents a sea change from just three months ago, when most economists were siding with central bankers in their then-prevalent view that a surge in inflation, driven in part by pandemic-related supply bottlenecks, would be transitory.
This month’s Reuters polls found 18 of 24 major central banks were expected to lift rates at least once this year, compared to 11 in the October poll. In contrast, most economists expect the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to stay put at least until the end of next year. However, with major central banks showing concern about bringing inflation expectations close to their targets, emerging economies face a similar challenge.
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