Future forecast: Is this the 2019 Election result? ANC 61%, DA 19%, EFF 11%, IFP 3% & FF+ 1% By Ferial Haffajee ferialhaffajee
If seven in 10 voters turn out, then this is the likely distribution of votes nationally – a voter turnout of about 70% tallies with how South Africans usually vote, says Ipsos director and pollster Mari Harris. In 1999, the voter turnout was 87.92%; in 2004, 75.52%; in 2009, 77.3% and in 2014, 73.4%.
If the ANC had not begun a path of reform under Ramaphosa, then it’s likely the party would not have even smelt 60% and struggled to achieve 50% of a national vote. Now, the ANC has run a campaign that has used its new president as a drawcard. Gauteng has the country’s highest number of registered voters and the party is struggling to get into pole position. Harris says a DA win is unlikely.DA election campaign manager Jonathan Moakes disagrees.Gauteng is up for grabs. We are seeing great movement in the polls. More broadly, things are looking up for us. Our aim is to bring the ANC below 50%, depends on every DA voter turning out.”
The EFF is likely to get 11% or more and it has run a campaign that has seen it go toe-to-toe with the ANC and DA. The party mortgaged its property in Johannesburg to fund a fully national campaign and to hold rallies across the country: it’s paid dividends as the Ipsos poll shows the EFF could be the official opposition in three provinces.
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