Chinese gold consumption is likely to be buttressed by financial investors and the central bank, although retail demand is more uncertain as the economy weakens, according to the producer-funded World Gold Council.
Bullion’s billing as a haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty or economic stress means that investment demand for gold coins and bars should be “solid” in the second half of the year, Wang Lixin, the WGC’s chief executive officer for China, said in an interview on Wednesday.
But the prospects for jewelry, the main pillar of demand, look rockier. As the economy has slowed, households have conserved cash. That’s shown up in disappointing retail sales and a lapse into deflation that could worsen demand for costlier items if consumers expect prices to keep falling. Bloomberg Economics reckons the chances of deflation persisting into the first quarter of 2024 are about 35%.
The outlook is a far cry from the first half when pent-up buying after the lifting of pandemic restrictions boosted China’s gold consumption. That had faded by July, with jewelry sales during the month contracting 10% year-on-year to 21.8 billion yuan , according to the statistics bureau, compared to peak growth of 45% in April.
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