Canada’s economy starts to cool after rollicking start to 2023

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Canada’s economy starts to cool after rollicking start to 2023
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Real gross domestic product rose 0.1 per cent in February, according to Statistics Canada; the economy is trending toward annualized growth of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter

The Canadian economy is losing momentum this spring as it contends with higher interest rates, a shift from robust growth to start the year.

The Bank of Canada has aggressively raised interest rates in a deliberate attempt to slow the economy and bring inflation under control. Its policy rate – now at 4.5 per cent, the highest since late 2007 – is set to remain at elevated levels for some time. “However, the Bank of Canada will look through that volatility, and focus instead on trying to get and keep inflation and inflation expectations under control. While a weakening economy should prevent policymakers pulling the trigger on another interest rate hike, we don’t see cuts forthcoming until early next year.”

Conversely, activity in wholesale trade fell 1.3 per cent during the month, while retail trade dropped by 0.5 per cent. According to Statscan’s estimates, those industries continued to decline in March, contributing to the overall contraction in output. However, the central bank expects growth to be weak through the rest of the year. It can take time – 18 to 24 months – for rate hikes to fully transit to the economy. And it’s unlikely that monetary policy will ease in the short term.

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