Analysis by Philip Bump: A brief recent history of Republican governors seeking the presidency
What’s important, though, is that most of these governors, even beyond Romney, seemed to be viable contenders for the nomination. Five of them led in polling averages at some point between the preceding midterm election and the Iowa caucuses. And none became president.We must recognize that these numbers are tainted by two factors: a small sample size and 2016. The former is obvious; there have been only eight presidential elections in the past 30 years. The latter should be obvious, too.
We can start in 2008, when former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee ran an unexpectedly strong campaign against Sen. John McCain . Huckabee was personable in a way McCain wasn’t and an outsider in a way McCain only tried to be. But, despite a late surge, he came up short. The stronger governor in that race was Romney, who trailed McCain the entire time but had a bigger core base of support than Huckabee.That translated into success in 2012.
Then came 2016. At different points in the race, three different governors seemed like viable contenders. The governor who lasted the longest in 2016 was someone never seen as particularly viable: Ohio’s John Kasich. He stuck around through the Ohio primary, earning some delegates to the convention, although he never led the field and was never a contender to win enough delegates to earn the nomination. His approach, instead, was to be positioned to replace Trump if convention delegates desired, which they didn’t.
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