Analysis: No, Republican underperformance in 2022 wasn’t due to covid deaths
and have been more likely to die of covid-19, we should still assume that no more than two-thirds of those who died would otherwise have voted.
Imagine a state in which 50,000 people died of the virus, for example. Imagine that those deaths were demonstrably 2 to 1 Republicans. That means that the net loss for Republicans was about 16,500 votes — a small margin in a statewide race.I took county-level data , determined the vaccination rates on June 1, 2021 and applied a distribution of those deaths by party in keeping with the curves above.
In no state, in fact, was there any Senate or gubernatorial race that was likely to have been affected by the partisan divide in coronavirus deaths. The closest was in Nevada’s Senate race, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was projected the winner with a current lead of about 6,600 votes. The partisan difference in covid-19 deaths would have narrowed that margin by about 2,000 votes, less than a third. And that’s with assumptions 4 and 5 above, about perfect turnout and no third-party voters.
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