Here is a very important question, which very sadly has no real answer: what would the global economy have looked like now if Covid-19 had not happened? It has no answer for the obvious reason that there is no counterfactual. But, you know, it’s nearly ...
The most obvious characteristics of the pandemic from an economic point of view are threefold: first, its global nature. The pandemic was akin to a world war in the sense that there were very few people or countries left unaffected. The sheer size of the pandemic wasn’t unprecedented, but was pretty close, I suspect.
Third, the approach of governments to the Covid crisis was very influenced by the 2008/09 global financial crisis . At the start of the GFC, there was some doubt about whether governments would intervene at all. Gradually, they did, but slowly and reluctantly.By the time Covid came around, lots of lessons had been absorbed.
The problem, of course, is that trendline. In fact, if you peg the trendline back further, US aggregate growth should have been faster through both crises, to the extent that the US economy should hover around perhaps $25-trillion rather than the roughly $23-trillion it is today. But you know, if and buts, who knows for sure? The real point is the reversion to the mean after the two crises happened sensationally faster following Covid.
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