2019 ELECTION: SAIRR final survey of the electorate offers surprising predictions By J Brooks Spector parkhurst1
There are three old, possibly apocryphal sayings — iron laws of a peculiar kind of political life, really — describing the genius of a political machine that ran Chicago for decades with clockwork precision, ensuring the predictability of results in order to guarantee the continuity of the political machine’s power.
But now, if the results of the SA Institute of Race Relations’ final pre-election polling is correct, the granite of South Africa’s political world is beginning to splinter. Not completely into gravel, not yet, but still, the cracks are beginning. In the IRR results, it had the ANC at a much lower level across the country and potentially in great trouble in Gauteng — the political, commercial, media, financial and industrial hub of the country — and it is in trouble even in KwaZulu-Natal.
In more general terms, it went on to indicate that “the DA is marginally up among black voters, but down among white voters, from 2014. The ANC is significantly down among coloured voters from 2014. The EFF is up significantly relative to 2014. This will set up an interesting dynamic between that party and the ANC over the next five years, for which, as of 4 May, it appears Gauteng will be the first test”.
In that province, this tracking poll now puts the ANC at just 48% and indicates that the DA could grow to 20.2%, with the EFF polling 13%, up from a paltry 1.85% in 2014.The DA systematically consolidated its share of white KZN voters. Among Indian voters, the DA also systematically consolidated its support upwards.”
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