Here's 12 Mid-July Economic Nuggets from Alex_Carrick !
ve deeper into today’s pricing and costing structures, and what additional knock-on implications are being revealed by other recent public and private sector data releases.
‘Appliances’ in the CPI are now +6.5%; three months ago, they were +8.0%. The ‘used car and truck’ sub-index is +7.1%; four months ago, it was +41.2%. More dramatically, ‘car and truck rentals’ this June were -7.7% y/y; a year ago, they were +87.8% y/y. The U.S. ‘core’ rate of inflation, which omits outrageously price-volatile food and energy components, is presently +5.9% y/y. A quarter ago, in March, CPI ‘core’ was worse at +6.5%.
The ‘total commodities’ price index maxed out in March 2022 at +121.3% compared with February 2020 and is now +93.1%. Expressed in a hopefully simpler fashion, the ‘total commodities’ price index is presently -12.7% versus peak, with ‘forestry products’ -41.5%; ‘metals and minerals’, -16.2%; ‘agricultural products’, -10.3%; and ‘energy products’, -13.8%.
The U.S. foreign trade balance remains deeply in arrears, in excess of minus a trillion and half dollars annualized in some recent months. A proposal has been floated that the U.S. should lower tariffs, especially on goods from China, as one means to help dim the wattage on inflation. But know that lower tariffs will spur the importation of more offshore goods, making what is already a fairly dire U.S. merchandise trade situation worse.
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