West Texas Intermediate crude is on track for its first back-to-back quarterly decline since 2019.
The risk of further unrest in Russia must be factored into oil analysis for H2 2023: Strategistis on track for its first back-to-back quarterly decline since 2019.
Speaking with BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday, RBC Capital Markets’ global head of commodity strategy, Helima Croft, said that they had not really forecast what internal instability could do to Russian oil exports. “Vladimir Putin is now being described as being really weakened from this revolt,” said Croft. “If he is weak or cornered, does he need to deploy more aggressive tactics to take control of the narrative that he is a strong leader?”
Despite the unexpectedness of the mutiny, Croft says that U.S. interest rate policy is still doing more to set the oil price than Russian geopolitics.PATH TO A HIGHER OIL PRICE“But everyone is assessing what the broader macro story is for oil prices,” said Croft. As for Chinese demand, Croft said, “Chinese oil imports have been coming in quite strong, but people are pricing in a slowdown.”
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