A new study suggests that covid-19 robs people of many years of life
”, urged a sign at a protest against Tennessee’s lockdown on April 20th—though whether the person holding it was trolling the other protesters is unknown. Some claim social distancing is pointless, since covid-19’s elderly victims would soon have died of other causes. In Britain many pundits have said that two-thirds of the country’s dead were already within a year of passing away.
First the authors analysed data for 6,801 Italian victims, grouped by age and sex for confidentiality. About 40% of men were older than 80, as were 60% of women. The authors excluded the 1% of victims under 50. Then they calculated how much longer these cohorts would normally survive. Life expectancies for old people are surprisingly high, even when they have underlying conditions, because many of the unhealthiest have already passed away.
The researchers warn that their data exclude people who died in care homes, who might have been especially sickly. Nor can they account for the severity of underlying illnesses. For example, covid-19 victims might have had particularly acute lung or heart conditions. More complete data could produce a lower estimate ofs. Mr Ferguson also points out that tallies of all-cause mortality will contain clues.
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