A global agency says the spreading new virus could make the world economy shrink this quarter for the first time since the international financial crisis more than a decade ago. In a special report on the impact of the virus, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Monday that
PARIS — A global agency says the spreading new virus could make the world economy shrink this quarter for the first time since the international financial crisis more than a decade ago.
But the OECD lowered its forecasts for global growth in 2020 by half a percentage point, to 2.4% — and said the figure could go as low as 1.5% if the virus lasts long and spreads widely. The last time the world economy shrank on a quarter-on-quarter basis was at the end of 2008, when a shock to the financial sector caused turmoil for businesses around the world and mass layoffs. On a full-year basis, it last shrank in 2009.
China’s viral outbreak has already disrupted global supply chains and cut business profits. And as the disease spreads, economists now worry about a graver scenario: That quarantines and greater caution among consumers will lead people to cancel travel plans, skip restaurant meals, avoid stores or stay home from work.
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