Dreaming of a white Christmas? We've crunched the numbers and calculated the odds.
Locations with insufficient data have been omitted.The chance of seeing snow on the ground during the holidays is very unlikely, %.
“When we look at snow cover, we’re seeing the biggest change in the shoulder seasons — in the fall it’s coming later, and in the spring it’s melting earlier,” Shea said. But in the middle of winter, a lot of Canada is cold enough that snow is on the ground and therefore not as sensitive to changes in temperature.
And finding definitive trends in snowfall is even harder. “Snowfall is incredibly difficult to measure,” said Richard Kelly, a professor of geography at the University of Waterloo, as many stations aren’t properly equipped to do so. In our analysis, nearly the same number of stations saw more days with snowfall around Christmas as ones that saw fewersuch days.
CBC spoke to Pomeroy while he was in Switzerland, which he referred to as the gold standard for snow observations. He said that the country has 360 human-maintained weather stations at high altitude measuring snow. Canada has none. “Ironically, everyone has a snow gauge,” he said, referring to a ruler, “but it’s one of the more elusive observations in this country that is known as the Great White North.”
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