The fate of the TSX has been tied to China’s economy over the last 25 years, which means the Canadian market may be the next to boom
The Chinese economic machine is whirring back to life, but the Canadian stock market is oddly indifferent.
While investor sentiment in North America has improved over the past three months, the gains have been modest – roughly 11 per cent, compared with nearly 25 per cent in German and French stocks. Britain’s benchmark index, meanwhile, is on the verge of a setting a record high. Some of the best years in Canadian stocks, in fact, have coincided with moments of great Chinese economic progress.
Another flip of the script is in the making. A period of elevated commodity prices and higher interest rates make for favourable odds for Canadian stocks. Rising demand out of China, reinforced by central-bank stimulus, will reverberate through the global commodity complex. While China is modernizing toward a more consumer-based economy, it is still the manufacturing hub of the world. It is responsible for one-fifth of global oil demand, while buying more than half the world’s refined copper, nickel and zinc.
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