Joe Biden’s chances on Super Tuesday could largely depend on how big a bounce from South Carolina he gets. ed_kilgore writes
Democratic presidential candidates former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe Biden speak during a break during the Democratic presidential primary debate at Paris Las Vegas on February 19, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Well, ten days have now changed everything. Michael Bloomberg’s horrendous February 19 debate performance in Las Vegas , combined with a second-place Biden finish in Nevada and two positive debates for Uncle Joe, cast a shadow on the former mayor’s strategy. Biden’s big win in South Carolina puts a bullet next to his name on the political charts. There’s not much time for fundraising before Super Tuesday, but Biden’s political treasury seems to be filling back up.
Biden’s chances on Super Tuesday could largely depend on how big a “bounce” from South Carolina he gets. Earlier this week Nate Silver projected candidate delegate hauls from Super Tuesday based on three scenarios: a Sanders win, a narrow single-digit Biden win, or a large Biden win . As it happens, Biden’s win in the Palmetto State was supersized at over 20 percent.
Bloomberg, of course, has the money to keep campaigning no matter what happens on March 3, and could still try to make a comeback even if Biden does “bounce” past him on Super Tuesday. But you do have to wonder how much longer the pundits and Establishment types who have publicly and privately boosted the billionaire as the one candidate who can beat Sanders and Trump will continue to encourage him if Biden has demonstrated yet again that he’s simply unbreakable.
At present Biden narrowly leads Bloomberg in polling of the crucial Super Tuesday states of California, Texas and North Carolina. Beating his centrist rival in those states is crucial to Biden, but it’s obviously even better if he beats Bernie in the latter two and denies him another evening of big headlines. Then the dollars probably would roll in for Biden, and Bloomberg would have to decide whether to throw good money after bad.
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