Why U.S. military intervention in Venezuela would be a risky gamble GlobeDebate
Jean Daudelin is associate professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University
First, the opposition bet that Venezuela’s military would abandon Mr. Maduro and let a peaceful caravan of food and medicine cross the country’s borders from neighbouring countries; instead, it ended in tear gas, fire and death.Second, the Lima Group and most European countries bet that the recognition of Juan Guaido as interim president would lead to a peaceful collapse of the regime; instead, it ended in the embarrassed denunciation of violence that was always highly probable.
Broad smiles and hugging aside, this is unlikely to satisfy Mr. Guaido. On Sunday, U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence echoed an early statement of U.S. President Donald Trump. Mr. Pence called on the international community to"consider every option to free this homeland.” Mr. Guaido is almost certainly worried that the current mobilization, already more than a month long, could lose its momentum – as has happened repeatedly in the past.
Ultimately, the success or failure of such a move will rest on the nature and scale of the endeavour. In a recent op-ed in the Washington Post, Francisco Torothe challenges of such an intervention, noting the collateral dangers of a large operation and the difficulty of dealing with the criminal organizations – including Colombian National Liberation Army guerrillas – that control much of the country’s territory.
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