In a recent report, the United Nations Population Division projects that the global population will reach 10.4 billion by the end of this century. That’s 800 million fewer than the 2017 edition projected
believe the latest UN projection is still too high. They predict that the global population will top out at under 10 billion and then decline to nine billion or less by the end of the century.
Getting the numbers right matters a lot. A global population of nine billion rather than 10 or 11 billion would help reduce carbon emissions and generally improve the environment. But societies with low fertility, increased longevity and aging populations struggle with labour shortages and overburdened health care systems, which is exactly what Canada is going through today, despite high levels of immigration.from the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The IHME projects a global population of no more than 8.8 million by the end of the century.
The difference, the UNPD report acknowledges, “lies in the assumptions on the future level of fertility.” So whose fertility assumptions are correct? All sides agree that about two-thirds of the global population lives in societies whose fertility rate is at or below 2.1 children per woman, which keeps a population stable. Once the fertility rate drops below 2.1, a country’s population eventually starts to decline.
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