Welcome to the Mona Lisa effect
doing? At first glance the subject of the world’s most famous painting seems to be smiling. Look again and her smile fades. When it next reappears, it is a different sort of smile. Leonardo Da Vinci achieved this ambiguous effect with the use of, where he blurred the lines around Mona Lisa’s face. No matter how many times you look, you are unsure what is happening.
In short: forecasting has rarely been harder. In the past year the range of analysts’ expectations for American quarterlygrowth has been twice as wide as in 2019. The word “uncertainty” appears more than 60 times in the’s latest global outlook, about twice as many as in the April and October 2022 versions.
What is going on? Perhaps the world is simply more volatile. In the past year Europe has seen its biggest land war in seven decades, supply-chain snarl-ups, an energy crisis and a period of banking turmoil. The second change relates to sample sizes. The pandemic accelerated a trend in which a growing share of people fail to respond to official surveys. In America the response rate for the survey used to estimate vacancies has fallen from nearly 60% just before the pandemic to around 30%. When covid struck, the response rate to Britain’s labour-force survey roughly halved. During lockdowns some businesses closed. And people fell out of the habit of filling in questionnaires.
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