The Republic breaks down five reasons why the Arizona Diamondbacks could fall short again in 2023.
The new rules being rolled out by MLB this season has certainly be scrutinized, but MLB insider Bob Nightengale explains why it should result in a better product on the field.With the season approaching, the Diamondbacks carry an undeniable air of optimism. They’re young, talented, fast and exciting. The overall mood at Chase Field is better than it’s been in years after a 22-win leap to 74-90 last season.
That’s not to discredit the Diamondbacks’ pitchers. But compare them to starters on teams widely expected to compete for National League Wild Card spots. Instead, the Diamondbacks’ No. 3 starter is Davies. Throughout his career, Davies has overperformed his expected numbers, like he did last year, when he posted a 4.09 ERA against an xERA of 4.56. Maybe that’s replicable. More likely, a strikeout rate in the 18th percentile and a walk rate in the 27th percentile will hurt Davies in 2023 unless he can find a way to improve upon them.
Last year, Christian Walker was the team’s best hitter with a wRC+ of 122. wRC+ is an all-encompassing offensive stat that compares players to league average. Walker’s number means he was 22% better than average, good for 50th among qualified hitters. Every playoff team had one qualified hitter with a wRC+ of 128 or better. The average playoff team had a whopping 3.4 players who hit better than Walker.
It’s one thing to succeed in 100 at-bats, as Carroll and Moreno did last year. But teams quickly learn to attack young hitters, making it difficult to sustain that success. Just look at Thomas. In his first 41 games, he slashed .275/.338/.451. From the 71 games between then and the end of the season, he slashed .205/.236/.280.
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