A loud and visible segment of Russia’s élites “have their own agendas and conservative ideology that are much more radical than [Vladimir] Putin’s,” the political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya says.
For the past year, Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, has been analyzing how Russian politics have been shaped by the invasion of Ukraine. Stanovaya has been explaining the Russian political environment to foreign audiences since 2018, when she founded R. Politik, a political-analysis firm, which is now in France.
Putin is becoming too “insane” for the progressive-minded groups that understand the restrictions Russia will face, due to sanctions, on its technological and scientific development and too soft for those who believe that Russia must opt for total mobilization and bring all its might down on Ukraine.
Through this prism, he makes a clear distinction between a right and good opposition and a destructive and hostile opposition. If we look objectively, Yevgeny Prigozhin, with all his public activities during the year, has politically damaged the regime perhaps much more than Alexey Navalny, the jailed opposition leader, has. Prigozhin is much more politically dangerous.
This division between what I call technocrats and patriots is very conditional but helps to display a larger picture of what is going on in the Russian élite. The first trend is composed of technocrats, civic senior officials, and most of the regional governors, who can only passively observe what is going on. They silently—or sometimes with necessary, ostentatious patriotism—execute Putin’s orders, without being allowed to discuss strategic-level politics, geopolitics, or foreign affairs.
This shows how this part of the élite, the “patriots,” who want Russia to win in Ukraine, have contradictory approaches and visions for how and at what price the state can do it. But these two segments, “technocrat-executors” and “patriots,” have a common ground—they share the feeling that Putin’s political behavior, against the backdrop of the war, is not adequate to the challenges that Russia is facing.
Now, as the Kremlin increasingly adopts a public strategy of portraying Russia as a victim, the greater the perceived external threat, the more societal support the authorities will receive. The Kremlin effectively exploits these fears by promoting an ultra-patriotic state ideology, a cult of state, and by reintroducing elements of Soviet ideology and institutions. This leads to an increase in mass denunciations and an atmosphere of intolerance toward any hint of anti-war sentiment.
Regarding the economic issues—something he has always found boring and willingly delegates—he has been overly optimistic, even inspired by the prospect of an economic breakthrough, while underestimating long-term risks. He also believes that people genuinely love and support him, sharing his main narratives, even though this support is, as I mentioned earlier, more rational and calculated.
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