I LISTENED with mounting incredulity to the BBC’s commentary on the SNP conference in Aberdeen. Actually, that’s a lie. Who these days is ever…
conference in Aberdeen. Actually, that’s a lie. Who these days is ever surprised by the vacuous, tedious reporting on political matters from the so-called national broadcaster?
In fact, there were polls over the summer where the Yes vote nudged ahead of No. In September, an Optimum poll for the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change had Yes on 45% versus No on 41%. Three separate polls in May and June also showed a majority for leaving the UK. An Ipsos-MORI poll in late May – carried out after Humza Yousaf became SNP leader – actually had Yes on 51%.
However, the real impact was seen in a sudden jump in the number of people registering as “don’t-knows” – not a jump in UK supporters per se. In fact, the rise in the number of folk not having a preference seems to come from both sides of the indy divide. That suggests that the independence movement needs to address security issues rather than be caught by events. We should also note that this wobble was shortlived.
All of this polling evidence indicates that the travails of the SNP as a party are a quite distinct issue from that of independence. The writ of the British state and Crown north of the Border is far from secure and certainly no more secure than it was in 2014. Instead, the SNP need to recognise that popular support for indy is undiminished. And that a large swathe of nominal supporters of the Union are less than solid in their allegiance.
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