Russia has given up on taking all, or even most, of Ukraine, and re-focused on the east of the country. We explain why
. After its troops invaded on February 24th, they quickly advanced on Kyiv, the capital. But poor organisation and strong Ukrainian resistance held them up. They have since retreated; Russia says its war aim is now to “liberate” Donbas in eastern Ukraine. Some think that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, wants to do so by Victory Day on May 9th, the date that commemorates Nazi Germany’s surrender in 1945.
Ukrainian forces went on the offensive, and appeared poised to retake the separatist-held territories. But Russian reinforcements rolled in from across the border, knocking the Ukrainians back. A hasty peace deal between Ukraine, Russia and the separatists halted the onslaught. But this agreement, known as Minsk I, soon broke down. By January 2015 full-scale fighting had broken out again.
Now Russia has given up on taking all, or even most, of Ukraine, and re-focused on the east of the country. “It looks as though they’re going to frontally assault Ukrainian forces to steadily squeeze them out of Donbas,” says Michael Kofman of CNA, a think-tank. That would mean advancing south from Izyum, north from Mariupol and pressing in areas like Severodonetsk, where Ukrainian forces are trapped in a salient.
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