Were China to provide military equipment to support Russia's war with Ukraine, Xi Jinping would be creating catastrophic risks for his own global agenda.
Still, the mere possibility of that support bears note, in light of Financial Times and New York Times reporting on Sunday. Referencing unnamed U.S. officials, the reporting suggests that Russia has requested China provide it with military equipment. The U.S. officials' disclosures seemed timed to pressure China just before its top foreign policy official Yang Jiechi meets U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan in Rome on Monday.
The most obvious risk of China giving military aid to Russia would be felt in Beijing's relationship with Europe. A centerpiece of Xi's pursuit of political and economic hegemony rests on his ability to maintain generally positive relations with the European Union. Often praising President Emmanuel Macron's"strategic autonomy" doctrine, China wants to gradually separate the EU from the Western alliance.
In 2021, the EU imported $516 billion of Chinese goods, more than seven times the value of Russia's $68 billion in imports from China. So while Russian energy supplies are increasingly important to China , Russia simply cannot compare to the EU's economic importance. And that's just one side of the EU coin. Beijing values its EU relationship for another reason: international prestige and political influence.
The fear is well-judged. Were China to send military equipment to Russia, it would be directly supporting Russia's desecration of the post-Second World War European order — its attack on the peace and territorial inviolability of democratic Europe. It would thus risk a potentially irreparable breach between China and the EU, a breach that doomed not only long term trade relations but invited the EU's much increased cooperation with the U.S.
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