Does anyone else feel like the outcomes of California’s Tuesday election were largely predictable? At the state level, results were almost instantaneously set in stone.
One of the main reasons, the panelists agreed: growing political polarization. A few examples:
It would be extremely difficult for a no-party-preference candidate to mount a successful statewide political campaign in California, because “the single biggest predictor of vote is partisan registration,” Rosales said. He added that he’s conducted polling where he asks residents to choose between a fictional Democrat or Republican and an actual person running as an independent, and the party members will still “get more votes than that independent. I mean, it’s just the way people are wired.”— are not nonpartisan.
“Independents in this state are oftentimes the people who don’t think the Democratic Party is liberal enough or fights hard enough, or people who don’t think that Republicans are conservative enough,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic political consultant and vice president of Political Data Inc. “It’s not just like this middle-of-the-road party.”“kind of reverse polarized against the other party,” Mitchell said. “And the data and the polling and the election results just support that.
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