Clashes have broken out sporadically around the border over the past year. But the latest ones are the heaviest since the end of a war almost two years ago over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijan of an unprovoked attack on September 13th, after its neighbour conducted overnight artillery and drone strikes against Armenian positions in the country’s east. Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, said at least 49 soldiers had been killed. Azerbaijan claims it was retaliation for “subversive acts” by Armenia and that 50 of its own servicemen have died. Clashes have broken out sporadically around the border over the past year.
The latest bloodshed involved hours of sustained shelling against Armenian border areas far from Nagorno-Karabakh. “This was not a response, but a concerted attack,” says Richard Giragosian of the Regional Studies Centre in Yerevan, Armenia’s capital. It came only a couple of weeks after Mr Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani president, met in Brussels to discuss prospects for a comprehensive peace treaty.
What happens next? Armenia has asked Russia to invoke a treaty which commits Moscow to come to its defence in the event of an attack by a foreign country. Given the situation in Ukraine, Russia will probably respond with “symbolic measures” rather than a large-scale military involvement, says Laurence Broers of Chatham House, a think-tank. Azerbaijan will have to tread carefully, however.
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