Wheat Crops in U.S. and China May Be Threatened by Unprecedented Heat and Drought — A new study from the Fried |
Global warming is significantly increasing the likelihood of extreme temperatures affecting wheat production in key regions in the U.S. and China, according to a study by Tufts University. Heat waves once rare could now occur more frequently, with serious implications for global food supply if these major grain-producing regions simultaneously face crop failure.
The findings predict heat waves that happened approximately once every hundred years in 1981 are now likely to happen once every six years in the Midwestern U.S. and once every 16 years in Northeastern China. The work shows the range of conditions that people need to prepare for, even if they haven’t occurred yet.
Winter wheat crops start their growth in the fall and are harvested the following summer. High temperatures in spring, when the plant is flowering, can affect the wheat’s development. At temperatures over 27.8 degrees Celsius , the plants start to suffer from heat stress. At temperatures over 32.8 degrees Celsius , important enzymes in the wheat start to break down.
The results indicate that both regions have been lucky in recent years. There is an aspect of randomness to weather—a range of possibilities could occur, sort of like when you roll a six-sided die. So far, these regions have been rolling fairly low numbers, ending up with cooler weather than they could have had. But climate change has switched out the die—the highest number is bigger than it used to be.
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