During FiveThirtyEight’s rise, Nate Silver became the hero for those who were tired of traditional, bloated election punditry. He eventually became an institution unto himself—making him a target for criticism.
As was true for FiveThirtyEight, Split Ticket’s most promising innovation comes from a permutation of sports analytics. Wins Above Replacement gauges how many wins an athlete adds to a team relative to “replacement level,” which, roughly speaking, means the level of a bad player who would cost a team nothing to acquire. The hope is to provide a single number that conveys the full effect of a player’s impact on a game.
Before Amy Klobuchar ran for President, much was made of the strength she had shown in her senatorial runs,. The case for her candidacy was cast in quantitative terms—she was a Democrat who won her 2018 Senate race by a twenty-four-point margin in a state that Hillary Clinton had won by only two points in 2016, and she held an unusual edge among white, non-college-educated voters.
But that doesn’t mean the quants aren’t doing something valuable. Our industry still has not extricated itself from the Beltway-gossip model in which a writer talks to a few people in D.C., puts his finger up to the wind, and takes what amounts to an educated guess. The truth, however unsatisfying, is that, though the polling wizards are fallible, invite a type of misreading, and perhaps do not always live up to the gravity of the moment, they’re still better than what came before.
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