Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian: A new ABC/Washington Post poll showed Trump with a lead over Biden in 2024 presidential election. The poll and pundits have it all wrong
If this were a rigorous quantitative exercise, with such a high margin of error, one would not be able to conclude that Trump is leading Biden at all, or vice versa, making this entire study basically useless.
Simplistic media headlines trumpeting its findings that Trump supposedly beat Biden gloss over the dubious numerical hogwash of the, Abt Associates. Perhaps they even intentionally wanted to subvert best practices and generate provocative polling results to gain the prominence of stature and the expert academic authority they lack. After all, provocative, contrarian polls can help outlets compete commercially in the attention economy.
I have no doubt that 92-year-old Abt Associates founder Clark Abt would shudder at such specious pseudo-science under his name if he examined this work. The first author of this article knew him decades ago as a pioneering MIT trained mathematical political game theorist and brilliant educational consultant.
Abt’s former Cambridge neighbor the Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith cautioned to one of us in 1974, “There are two kinds of forecasters: Those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.”
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