The homebuying buzz is about bidding wars but industry metrics don’t seem to reflect talk of a wild market. How can that be?
How can that be? Maybe the anecdotes are market oddities. Or perhaps the summer’s aggressive pricing will show up in housing indexes this autumn after pending sales are completed.
Much of the Southern California News Group’s coverage of homebuying trends is based on a 35-year history of median prices for sales of all residence types in six local counties. The data comes from Irvine-based CoreLogic, which previously was DQNews and before that DataQuick.. These geeky calculations measure price performance by looking at the gains or losses for the owner on each existing, single-family home sold in a month.
And the biggest loss? In LA-OC it was a drop of 28% for Case-Shiller vs. a 36% drop for the median . In San Diego, Case-Shiller’s worst was off 27% vs. 35% for its median .One good example of short-run differences is the volatile times of the pandemic era. This year, housing saw a rebound. LA-OC prices gained 6% off the cyclical bottom through June by Case-Shiller vs. 10% for the median. San Diego was up 9% from the lows by Case-Shiller vs. 12% for its median.I’ll also mention that two really nerdy statistical measurements – standard deviation and correlation – suggest very minimal differences between Case-Shiller and the median.
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