For a while it looked as though J.D. Vance’s hard-right tone might cost him the chance of a Senate seat in a state that has recently turned reliably Republican. But over the past month, the race has once again been moving in his favour
pushing fentanyl, with the connivance of grasping big business and clueless liberal elites. With the backing of Donald Trump , Mr Vance bashed Democrats and “RINOs” alike. He embraced one of the hardest lines on abortion of any Republican candidate across the country—opposing the procedure even in cases of rape or incest. And long before most other Republicans, he was sceptical of American aid to Ukraine, instead embracing an isolationist turn.
That may have worked for a Republican primary. It goes down less well with the general electorate. For a while it looked as though Mr Vance’s hard-right tone might cost him the chance of a Senate seat in a state that has recently turned reliably Republican. Over the summerOver the past month, however, the race has once again moved in Mr Vance’s favour.
It is not uncommon for candidates to tweak their messaging after the primaries, to appeal to a wider audience. But in Mr Vance’s case it is especially jarring. He is now avoiding the topic of abortion . In the debates, he argued that he would be “an independent voice for the people of Ohio”, suggesting that he was distancing himself from other Republicans in the Senate. He has recently been willing to criticise Mr Trump, if lightly, on past appointments to his administration.
It is a smart move. Polling shows that a growing share of Americans have become disenchanted with both the Democrats and the Republicans . It makes sense, then, that across the country candidates on both sides appear to be diluting their partisan credentials: some Democrats fighting for election have distanced themselves from Joe Biden, the gaffe-prone president, and some Trump-backed Republicans have scaled back their praise of the party’s kingmaker..
Our election model suggests that Mr Ryan has not done enough to catch up with Mr Vance: we now forecast that he has just an 18% chance of winning the seat. But regardless of the outcome, both candidates illustrate that while Ohio has drifted Republican, a large share of voters in the state, and the country, might in fact crave somebody distinct from either political party.
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