What does the bond between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin mean for the conflict in Ukraine, and foretell of potential future confrontations?
“the culprit of current tensions surrounding Ukraine,” and gave voice to Putin’s grievances, asking, “When the U.S. drove five waves ofexpansion eastward all the way to Russia’s doorstep, and deployed advanced offensive strategic weapons in breach of its assurances to Russia, did it ever think about the consequences of pushing a big country to the wall?”
Historically, the Chinese Communist Party fretted about other powers seizing territory, fearing that someone could encroach on its own sovereignty. But, under Xi, it has become increasingly brazen about pursuing its territorial ambitions in the South and East China Seas; along the Indian border; and with regard to Taiwan, the democratically ruled archipelago that has become an object of rising threats.
That shift has inspired concern that Chinese leaders may be watching the invasion of Ukraine as a test case for their own long-held ambition to conquer Taiwan. “We empathize with Ukraine’s situation,” Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s President,, as she announced a task force to study the tensions in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Tsai ordered Taiwan’s security forces to step up surveillance and defenses.
For the moment, though, that is a secondary risk to whatever violence is now unfolding between armed forces and civilians in Ukraine. Jude Blanchette, a China specialist at C.S.I.S. who hosted the group’s forum, suggested that if Ukraine becomes a quagmire—Putin’s Afghanistan—then it may be more of a deterrent than an incentive to observers in Beijing.
By Wednesday night, Russian missiles were striking Ukraine, and troops were landing on its southern coast. In a grim juxtaposition, the United Nations Security Council was still in session, appealing in vain for Putin to withdraw his attack. The United States announced plans to introduce a resolution condemning the actions. Though the measure is doomed to be vetoed by Russia, it would likely force China to signal its commitments more clearly, by abstaining or by joining Russia’s position.
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