Weekly economic wrap: the Rand definitely stole the show

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Weekly economic wrap: the Rand definitely stole the show
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The Rand was trading at R17.09 against the US dollar on Friday afternoon, indicating more good news for fuel prices.

In a week with no major data releases, the Rand definitely stole the show from lacklustre official figures. The Rand exchange rate has been on a bender due to favourable external developments, and the question now is whether there is a hangover on the way and, if so, how severe it will be.

“It is therefore impossible to say where the exchange rate will stabilise and importantly, how long it will stay at that level. Regardless, the implications for inflation and fuel prices are welcome and could contribute to the jumpstart the economy needs.”Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, says the Rand hit its strongest level since January 2023, riding the wave of a weaker dollar and the surprise stimulus package from China, which bolstered emerging markets.

Mosoma points out that formal non-agriculture employment increased by 42 000 jobs, also fully driven by employment from extra-budgetary institutions in the public sector for the election. “Without this boost, employment would have been down by 48 000 jobs compared to the previous quarter amid a broad-based decline across industries, such as business services, construction, manufacturing, mining, transport and trade.

“Compared to the second quarter of 2023, 144 000 jobs were lost, but over half a million jobs have been added since the second quarter of 2019. With easing policy uncertainty and growing confidence in the economy’s trajectory, growth and employment creation should improve. Furthermore, slower inflation should support profitability.”Producer price inflation dropped more than expected to 2.8% in August from 4.2% in July, well below the consensus expectation of 3.5%.

“Overall, the moderation in producer price inflation suggests that consumer price increases are also likely to continue trending lower in the coming months.”

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