We asked 17 smart people to predict the future of transportation in 2023

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We asked 17 smart people to predict the future of transportation in 2023
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Will e-bikes top Tesla as the top-selling EV in the country?

A lot more stuff happened, but honestly, who wants to dwell on the past? Here at, we keep our unwavering eyes always on the future, which is why I thought it could be cool to reach out to a bunch of my favorite smart people in transportation to get their predictions for 2023.

Incentive programs will multiply: Cities like Denver have recently rolled out successful e-bike incentive and rebate programs, and we expect 10-plus states to offer them next year as local officials recognize their popularity and general awareness around e-bikes as viable transportation solutions builds. Beyond reducing carbon emissions, incentive programs are enabling people with ways to get to work, pick their kids up from school, and more easily run errands.

Electric cars aren’t sexy. You know what is sexy? Electric bikes. In 2023, cities will realize that they’ve been too busy reading Elon Musk’s Tweets to notice that the transportation revolution of the last decade hasn’t been in Uber, Lyft or in electric, driverless or flying cars but in the half-billion bike share and e-scooter trips taken since 2010 with scant public investment.

Some existing partnerships between OEMs and high-profile AV startups will fail since the latter are unable to deliver. This will be particularly true for startups that only depend on cameras as their AV sensors. When you don’t meet promised milestones, at some point, financial realities catch up. The micromobility space will continue to shrink due to a multitude of logistical and financial problems.As an avalanche of EVs spanning the entire cost spectrum begin to flood the market from all around the globe, the market cap of hyped companies like Tesla and Nio will come back to earth and stay there, with P-E ratios becoming largely homogeneous.

“Expect more layoffs in the large AV companies and at least one more high-profile flameout like Argo AI”GM will surrender on Cruise, citing astronomical costs and this uncertain path to profitability.We see direct action and tactical urbanism hitting the mainstream in 2023. As Americans wake up to the fact that government is failing to provide basic services and move with necessary urgency on a variety of pressing issues, we expect to see more and more groups like L.A.

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