Many major car makers — including those in South Africa — may have miscalculated the demand for electric mobility.
Amid the usual flurry of press releases in my inbox, one caught my eye, from Volvo South Africa. Volvo is a small player in the South African and African industry, so news that it had grown market share in the premium segment from 10.7% to 12% didn’t trouble the eyebrows too much.
This is far from a unique tale. According to Bloomberg, global EV sales grew 103% last year, making up 13% of all passenger car sales in Q4 last year. While this is dominated by the EU and China, the fastest year-on-year growth in EV sales was recorded in India, where surging two- and three-wheeler electrification grew EV sales 209% from 2020 to 2021.
Bloomberg’s EV status report comes at the same time as InfluenceMap – a greeny think tank that provides analysis on how business and finance are affecting climate change – is using IHS Markit data to forecast the big car companies’ EV production planning until the end of the decade, and in many cases it simply doesn’t match the demand we’re seeing.
While in the EU 68% of cars built will be EVs or PHEVs by the end of the decade, here in Africa that number falls to 14%, almost all of which is due to production planning by Mercedes-Benz. I’ve seen no announcements to this effect, but the IHS data seems to suggest that Mercedes-Benz South Africa plans to introduce EV production at its East London plant in 2026.
As much as there is always interest at the charging points at the super-smart stuff from Audi, Porsche and BMW, no EV I have driven has ever attracted as much attention as the new Mini SE I drove recently. That, I think, is because it seems like a more accessible product. At R660,000 that’s an arguable point, but with EVs still taxed like luxury goods at the border by this relentlessly bovine government, it is comparatively affordable.
I spent 10 days with the Mini SE, and range was categorically not an issue – and I don’t even have a charger at home. On one day my local charger was non-functional and during my time with the car we had constant load shedding and cold, wet weather, limiting the range yet further as the heaters, headlights and windscreen wipers worked away. When I stopped to grab a coffee at my local mall, or do a Pick n Pay run, I just plugged it in. Twenty minutes here; an hour there.
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