US polls reflect stable voting behaviour, but shifts in key demographics, like GenZ and women, complicate predictions.
Democratic presidential nominee, US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Picture: Brendan SMIALOWSKI and Jim WATSON / AFPThis is not just about who people vote for, but even if certain groups of people vote at all and, if so, what proportion votes.
Second, they tend to screen calls so those who do answer the pollsters are possibly not representative of the group. They have shifted to the Harris-Walz ticket. The Dobbs decision overthrowing Roe v Wade has affected women’s health negatively, both maternal morbidity and child mortality have increased, and life-saving care has been denied due to fear of legal action, even in open-and-shut cases of the death in utero of a much-wanted child since in some states, care can only be provided when the woman is dying.
Over 75 million citizens voted early, which is more than voted for Trump in 2020, and in Georgia, a key swing state, close to 560 000 early voters did not vote in the 2020 elections and of these, 34% are between 18 and 29 years of age and 54% are women.
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