Vladimir Putin is doubling down on his disastrous war. Peace will come when Russian citizens understand that he is losing and cannot win
Vladimir Putin, hear what he says about his enemies. On September 21st the man who invaded Ukraine said Western powers “aggressively impose their will...on other countries”. They desire the “plunder” of Russia, said the man with a billion-dollar palace. “They have even resorted to nuclear blackmail,” he said, and threatened a nuclear response if Ukraine tries to take the territory he stole from them., Russia’s despot is trying to signal strength.
However, the stridency of his oratory suggests panic instead of power. Mr Putin’s blundering on the battlefield has caused the first cracks in his aura of undisputed command in Russia. Although television constantly lies about the war and alternative voices are muzzled, the reality in Ukraine is now so different from the fantasy beamed into Russian living rooms that it is hard for Mr Putin to keep his story straight.
Time is not on Mr Putin’s side. The reservists he is calling up do not need to be taught to shoot straight, but they need training to deal with new kit and local conditions. If deployed too soon, they will die in droves. They could be slotted into existing, depleted units to restore their strength. That would make it easier for Russia to defend its lines, though probably not to mount new offensives.
When Mr Putin invaded Ukraine, he thought it would fold. It did not. Now he hopes that its Western backers, lacking the heart for a long struggle, will cut arms shipments and press Ukraine to sue for peace. They must not. Mr Putin is trying to show strength because he is weakened and the Russian people are beginning to sense it. Ukraine must maintain the momentum on the battlefield. Peace will come when Russian citizens understand that Mr Putin is losing and cannot win.
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