Chris Varcoe writes: The next Alberta government has to keep a close eye on its budget surplus as oil prices dip and build a diversification plan.
In Alberta, campaign promises made over the past month will leave the province with even less wiggle room than the $2.4-billion surplus forecast in the budget, said University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.
On the revenue front, every $1-a-barrel change in the price of WTI oil over the course of the budget year alters provincial revenues by $630 million. President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Travis Toews discussed the Alberta 2023 Budget during a press conference on Feb. 28. The province will likely need oil prices to average about $75 a barrel this year to balance its books, an expert said.Alberta’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2.4 per cent this year, compared with just above one per cent for the country, said Marc Desormeaux, an economist with Desjardins.
The International Energy Agency recently predicted global oil demand will grow by 2.2 million barrels per day this year, while noting consumption is forecast to exceed supply by almost two million bpd in the second half of 2023. Billions of dollars in new energy projects have been announced involving hydrogen, petrochemicals, biofuels, and carbon capture, utilization and storage developments, although many haven’t been sanctioned yet.
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