An expected rise in cases this fall is based on waning immunity rather than the threat of new variants better able to evade immunity, according to the latest COVID modelling projections
The Omicron BA.5 subvariant continues to infect British Columbians at a high rate as immunity from both vaccinations and infections wanes, according to a report from the COVID-19 Modelling Group released Wednesday.None of the new variants cropping up in recent weeks are common enough or growing fast enough to account for the recent increase in infections, the report says.
Other Canadian provinces are also seeing BA. 5 continuing to dominate, says Sally Otto, an evolutionary biologist at the University of B.C. with the COVID-19 Modelling Group. The BA.4/BA.5 bivalent vaccine approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in August has been tested in mice but not yet in humans, according to another report of which Otto is also a co-author.
Even the original COVID-19 vaccines still available in Canada provide a major boost, said Piccirillo, a professor and senior scientist at the research institute of the McGill University Health Centre. A pharmacist at a Walgreens in Ferndale, Washington, who asked not to be named, said of 80 to 100 scheduled appointments each day, about half are for Canadians who say they came to the U.S. specifically for the BA.4/BA.5 bivalent vaccine.
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