USD/JPY: The risk of a retest of 150 is hard to ignore

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USD/JPY: The risk of a retest of 150 is hard to ignore
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USD/JPY has settled above the 145 mark. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook. Intervention is a clear risk if USD/JPY nears the 150 lev

Finance Minister Suzuki commented last week that the authorities would respond appropriately to ‘excessive moves’ in the exchange rate but beyond that, finance officials have been quiet on FX recently. Still, market participants understand that intervention is a clear risk if the USD nears the 150 level and the charts suggest that, after the USD’s advance above the June high , the risk of a retest of 150 is hard to ignore.

If JPY defence is a priority, direct FX intervention and allowing slightly higher domestic yields to coincide with a downturn in US bond yields would be optimal from a policy effectiveness point of view.Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets.

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