Analyst Alex de Waal looks at how the US president-elect could deal with conflicts on the continent.
It is difficult to try to predict the decisions that US President-elect Donald Trump will make when he returns to the White House.
The AU embraced its multilateralism but recoiled from being lectured on human rights and democracy and were divided on Western military interventions such as in Libya.The "Trump Doctrine" for the Middle East and Africa swept aside multilateralism in favour of transactional deals with American allies in Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and, above all, Israel.
The immediate issue was how much water would be retained by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as it approached completion. It came too late to save Sudan from the economic crisis that crushed its democratic experiment and fell away after Trump lost to Joe Biden.The exact alignments and deals are impossible to predict, and much will depend on the individuals appointed to key positions. But the "liberal peace" is now dead and buried.
But if there is a reshuffle of the Middle Eastern political cards, a bargain over Sudan might be a by-product, even an opportunity for Trump to bask in the glow of an unexpected peacemaker. The Biden administration's policy towards the Horn of Africa was neither committed to principled multilateralism, nor ready to use its leverage with the Gulf states.
Alternatively, missions could be outsourced to allies such as the UAE or private military contractors.Kenyan President William Ruto’s rapport with Biden will do him no favours, but- and contributor of police to Haiti - will likely retain good standing within the Department of Defense.
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