As climate change makes the planet even hotter and drier, scientists are seeking to better understand the conditions that drive the monsoon—and how to predict and plan for it
—a cascading slurry of soil, rocks, water, and other materials—from areas where a recent wildfire has burned away the vegetation that would normally keep it all in place. Lightning storms early in monsoon season can also set fire to the parched landscape.. When monsoon season is delayed or if it’s drier than usual, wildfires have more time to burn. But understanding why monsoons are so varied from year to year starts with understanding what causes them.
Castro says that even higher resolution models—down to the kilometer—would be needed to be able to say definitively whether the mountain range plays a role. Boos disagrees but acknowledges that there’s more work to be done to test the hypothesis. His team is now analyzing the last 40 years of historical data to see if it aligns with this theory.Having a better understanding of the North American monsoon could help in making critical decisions about how to manage the region’s water supply.
Castro says these findings are essential for water supply management. Finding out in April that the coming monsoon season will be dry, for example, will allow communities to adjust their water conservation plans. A forecast of a wet monsoon, meanwhile, will give them warning to harvest and store that monsoonal rain—especially as climate change makes it increasingly erratic.
These changes have major implications for the region, which isn’t prepared to face a once-in-a-thousand-year storm every couple of years. More intense storms can cause flooding—as seen in Death Valley—and set off massively destructive debris flows. It’s also hard to rely on intense monsoon rains for water because a lot of it is just going to wash off the land, Castro says.
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