With the war in Ukraine grinding through its 10th month, both sides are locked in a stalemated battle of attrition, which could set the stage for a new round of escalation.
Many observers see the current deadlock as beneficial to Ukraine, allowing it to receive more state-of-the-art weapons from the West and prepare for new counteroffensives. In Russia, there is a growing sense of desperation among hard-liners about what they see as President Vladimir Putin's hesitancy and lack of a clear strategy.
Crump argued the Ukrainian military could try to reclaim parts of the southern Zaporizhzhia region and push toward the strategic port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. That would allow Ukraine to cut Russia's land corridor to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. Mariupol fell to the Russians in May after a nearly three-month siege that left much of it in ruins.
“Russia is trying to build up a better striking force rather than just throwing people into the front line,” Crump said. “They think they can last the course and come back in greater numbers next year and do something much more impressive then." Ukraine, in turn, has tried to keep its opponent off balance with surprise attacks, some of them deep inside Russia.
"The strikes on the energy infrastructure are aimed at inciting social tension and raising pressure in order to push for talks,” Zhdanov said, adding they haven't had much impact on the capability of the Ukrainian army, which has mostly relied on diesel generators. He noted Russia's attacks have only strengthened the Ukraine's resolve by “causing anger and and a desire to take revenge.
In remarks last week that reflected growing concerns about escalation, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the fighting could spin out of control and morph into “a major war" between the alliance and Russia. Strelkov charged that a protracted conflict could be “suicidal for the Russian Federation, its government and elites.”
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